Dwight 1.3: Baserunning arrives

Stolen base projectoins jump from weakest to best, and pitcher wOBA leads the field.

Dwight 1.3 delivers the biggest single-category jump with SB improvements, while pitcher wOBA quietly takes the lead over the field.

Batting

Stolen base projections go from the weakest in the field to the best.

Bar chart of hitter stolen base projection error for Dwight 1.1 through 1.3 and peer systems — Batter SB MAE — Dwight 1.3 leads the field. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player PA.

Run projections narrowly lead ATC for the best, RBI projections sit just behind Steamer, and hitter strikeout projections take a clear step forward. Hitter wOBA slips a notch from 1.2—still ahead of ATC, The BAT and The BAT X, but behind ZiPS, Steamer and OOPSY. Hitter BABIP will be an upcoming area to target.

Bar chart of batter wOBA projection error for Dwight 1.3, Dwight 1.2 and peer systems — Batter wOBA MAE. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player PA.

Rate	1.2	1.3	Δ
Batter SO	.0306	.0294	−.0012
Batter SB	.0368	.0338	−.0030
Batter R	.0182	.0178	−.0004
Batter RBI	.0207	.0208	+.0001
Batter wOBA	.0266	.0271	+.0005

Pitching

Pitcher wOBA is now the best of any system, ahead of Steamer, OOPSY and ZiPS. This is due to improvement in the components, as BB, HR and BABIP projections have all made gains as well.

Bar chart of pitcher wOBA projection error for Dwight 1.3, Dwight 1.2 and peer systems — Pitcher wOBA MAE — Dwight 1.3 leads the field. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player BF.

System	Batter wOBA	Pitcher wOBA
Dwight 1.3	.02706	.0305
Dwight 1.2	.02656	.0320
ZiPS	.02640	.0342
Steamer	.02657	.0319
OOPSY	.02678	.0330
ATC	.02721	.0372
The BAT	.02762	.0577
The BAT X	.02794	.0568

Rate	1.2	1.3	Δ
Pitcher wOBA	.0320	.0305	−.0015

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